全球擺脫化石燃料的行動主要集中在運輸和工業領域，但石化行業在未來幾十年仍將需要化石燃料
石化市場的價值預計到2030年前將增長到10億美元，從而增加其對原油和天然氣的需求
雖然石化行業幾乎可以肯定會在未來10年看到增長，但它將需要在脫碳業務上大舉投資
據美國油價網6月16日報道，盡管全球各國都在制定雄心勃勃的目標，以減少對化石燃料的依賴，但在未來幾十年里，許多國家的石化生產仍將依賴石油和天然氣。然而，由于許多國家的政府在努力履行其氣候承諾的同時，也在應對全球需求，石油和天然氣業務的脫碳很可能成為石化行業成功的關鍵。最近的一份石化報告顯示，到2030年前，石化市場規模將達到1萬億美元左右，在未來8年以6.2%的復合年增長率增長。建筑、紡織、醫療、制藥、消費品、汽車、電子等行業的石化產品需求預計將大幅增加。
目前，乙烯、丙烯和苯是主要的石化產品，被用于包裝、電子、塑料和橡膠工業。大多數石化產品使用原油和天然氣制造，使得許多行業高度依賴化石燃料行業。
由于強有力的監管政策對石化行業的支持，亞太地區預計將在未來十年主導石化市場。增加天然氣產量——以彌補能源向可再生替代品過渡的差距——將支持石化工業的發展。
國際能源署預測，全球原油需求將持續增長到2025年，然后在2026年至2050年期間以1%的復合年增長率下降。國際能源署認為，石油作為石化原料的使用是唯一一個需求將增長的領域，到2050年前，石油石化市場將占全球石油需求的55%。
但我們可以預期，由于許多國家努力減少溫室氣體排放，石油化工行業將出現更大規模的脫碳，這將推動價格上漲。根據最近的分析，預計將需要7590億美元來通過電氣化、碳捕獲和儲存(CCS)技術以及其他關鍵創新來實現石化行業的脫碳。
彭博新能源財經5月份發布了一份題為《石化產品脫碳：凈零路徑》的報告，該報告解釋了“(石化產品的)低碳路線將比今天的生產成本更高”，盡管生產成本將會下降。這可能導致引入“綠色溢價”(green premium)，以提供“強有力的激勵措施，以凈零要求取代或減少市場上塑料和化學品的使用”。
BNEF報告的主要作者Ilhan Savut表示：“政府和企業的凈零承諾正在推動石化行業在2050年前削減其排放。盡管石化行業的脫碳路徑比其他任何行業都要復雜，但與鋼鐵和水泥等其他重排放行業相比，石化企業的凈零目標涵蓋了更多的全球制造能力。”
Savut認為，現在對碳減排技術的大量投資將有助于油氣公司在2035年后保持其影響力。由于大規模可再生能源變得更加廉價，石化產品的創新替代品被引入市場，在未來十年建立低碳運營可以幫助化石燃料驅動的公司保持競爭力。
大多數大型石油和天然氣公司已經開始將CCS技術引入運營中，以期在一個逐漸遠離化石燃料、試圖脫碳的世界中延長它們的生存時間。盡管人們對可再生能源寄予了巨大的希望，但毫無疑問，不斷增長的全球燃料需求將意味著對化石燃料的持續依賴，直到可再生能源產業發展到足以滿足這些需求。
與此同時，政府間氣候變化專門委員會(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)正在研究如何最好地降低能源行業的碳含量。它模擬了數百種實現2015年巴黎氣候協定目標的潛在情景，目標是到2050年前實現凈零碳排放，發現使用CCS技術是最有效的解決方法。
雖然石化行業脫碳的成本聽起來很高，但它實際上只占全球能源行業脫碳所需的172萬億美元的1%左右。該報告還建議，未來化工行業需要投資替代能源，如生物質和綠色氫。
由于全球對石化產品的需求持續增加，石化工業預計將在未來二十年繼續增長。這將是未來30年石油和天然氣需求的主要驅動力，盡管我們看到取暖和運輸對化石燃料的依賴有所減少。然而，由于各國政府向石油公司施壓，要求它們在運營過程中降低碳排放，這將需要大量投資來將CCS和其他技術引入項目中，以確保石化行業在低碳世界中仍能發揮作用。
李峻 編譯自 美國油價網
原文如下：
The Petrochemical Industry Is Set To Explode
The global movement to ditch fossil fuels is largely focused on transport and industry, but the petrochemical industry will need fossil fuels for decades to come.
The value of the petrochemical market is forecast to grow to $1 billion by 2030, increasing its demand for crude oil and natural gas.
While the petrochemical industry is all but certain to see growth in the coming decade, it will need to invest heavily in decarbonizing operations.
As countries around the globe are setting ambitious targets to reduce their dependency on fossil fuels, many will remain reliant on oil and gas for petrochemical production for decades to come. However, the decarbonization of oil and gas operations may well become key to the success of the industry, as many governments strive to keep their climate pledges while also responding to global demand. A recent petrochemical report suggests that the petrochemical market size will reach around $1 trillion by 2030, increasing at a CAGR of 6.2 percent over the next eight years. The increase in demand will be mainly centered around the construction, textile, medical, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, automotive, and electronics industries.
At present, ethylene, propylene, and benzene are the main petrochemicals being used across the packaging, electronics, plastics, and rubber industries. Most petrochemical products are manufactured using crude oil and natural gas, making many industries highly reliant on the fossil fuel sector.
The Asia Pacific region is expected to dominate the petrochemical market over the next decade thanks to strong regulatory policies supporting the industry. And an increase in natural gas production – to bridge the gap in the energy transition to renewable alternatives – will support the development of the petrochemical industry.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global crude demand will continue to increase until 2025, before decreasing at a CAGR of 1 percent between 2026 and 2050. The IEA believes that oil use as a petrochemical feedstock is the only area that will see an increase in demand, with 55 percent of all global oil demand contributing to the petrochemical market by 2050.
But we can expect to see greater decarbonization in the petrochemical industry, as many countries strive to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, which will drive prices up. An anticipated $759 billion will be required to decarbonize the sector through electrification, carbon capture and s torage (CCS) technologies, and other key innovations, according to recent analyses.
A BloombergNEF (BNEF) report, released last month, entitled Decarbonizing Petrochemicals: A Net Zero Pathway, explains how “low-carbon routes [for petrochemicals] will remain more expensive than today’s production”, even though there will be a decrease in production costs. This could lead to the introduction of “green premiums” to provide “strong incentives to replace or reduce plastic and chemicals use in markets with net-zero mandates”.
The lead author of the BNEF report, Ilhan Savut, stated “Governments and corporate net-zero commitments are pushing the petrochemicals industry to cut its emissions by 2050. Despite facing a more complex decarbonization path than any other sector, petrochemicals players’ net-zero targets cover more of the global manufacturing capacity than other heavy emitters like steel and cement.”
Savut suggests that big investments in carbon-cutting technologies now will help oil and gas companies to stay relevant post-2035. Establishing low-carbon operations over the next decade could help fossil fuel-driven firms to remain competitive as larger-scale renewable energy becomes more affordable, and innovative alternatives to petrochemical products are introduced to the market.
Most major oil and gas companies have already begun to introduce CCS technologies into their operations, in a bid to enhance their longevity in a world that is gradually moving away from fossil fuels in an attempt to decarbonize. Despite huge hopes for renewables, there is no doubt that the rising global fuel demand will mean a continued reliance on fossil fuels until the renewable energy industry becomes large enough to meet these needs.
In the meantime, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is researching how to best decarbonize the energy industry. It has modeled hundreds of potential scenarios to achieve the 2015 Paris climate agreement goals, aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, finding that the use of CCS technologies was the most effective.
While the cost of decarbonizing the petrochemical industry sounds significant, it actually amounts to around just 1 percent of the $172 trillion total needed to decarbonize the global energy sector. The report also suggests that the industry will need to invest in alternative energy sources for chemical manufacturing in the future, such as biomass and green hydrogen.
The petrochemical industry is expected to continue to grow well into the next two decades, with the demand for petrochemical products continuing to increase worldwide. This will be a major driver for oil and gas demand over the next 30 years, even as we see a decrease in the reliance on fossil fuels for heating and transport. However, as governments put pressure on oil firms to decarbonize their operations, large investments will be required to introduce CCS and other technologies into projects to ensure that the petrochemical industry can remain relevant in a low-carbon world.
